I think Facebook is far from over. It has only just surpassed MySpace for the number of active users, and we have yet to see what the upcoming re-design will do for the network. Plus, there are rumors of Facebook possibly developing an e-commerce site (http://thestandard.com/predictions/facebook-debuts-e-commerce-system-f8), which could make Facebook's bubble even bigger.

(1) Forbes used a valuation of $5 billion to place Zuckerberg on it's most recent list. No one from Facebook complained about that valuation.
(2) The ConnectU case report had already shed light on the fact that INTERNALLY they have a much lower valuation
(3) I have never understood the talk of a $15 billion valuation since MSFT also got the rights to serve ads in the US with that investment, not just a stake in Facebook.
(4) A "bubble" would imply that people were actively buying shares in Facebook with the hop of cashing out filthy rich - but it is not a publicly traded stock so how can there be a "bubble"? The hype around the suspect $15B valuation will probably finally burst, but it was the media that was fueling that so amen.

Agreed. Facebook is only just discovering the power of what it can do. Social networking, by design, is constantly evolving, and that means making mistakes and bouncing back from those mistakes. Facebook will be the first to admit they've made mistakes in the past, but they're constantly working to fix those mistakes and create newer, better ways to network. Stock may be down, but I think it's merely a sign of the times for businesses across the board and hardly indicative of a "burst".

Something is worth only what people are willing to pay for it. Thus, I question whether Facebook or MySpace or any such sites are worth whatever values are claimed for them. Sometimes, dollar valuation is just a reflection of an attempt to make physical something that isn't; a distinctly majority-culture phenonmenon. One person's trash is another's treasure, and actuality is somewhere in between those extremes.

It's evolving.

Sort of like Second Life, I see Facebook as having been the New new thing, hitting its peak in media interest and participation, and now waning as other social networking sites/venues appear.

Let me geek out for a second. With the arrival of OpenSocial (clever Google!), the advantage Facebook had by opening it's API to widget developers, seems to be slipping. Whether this is the cause of the dropping value of FB is unclear to me, but OpenSocial suddenly makes networks that allow easy tapping into people's data, social graph and feeds a lot more attractive. Look at aggregators Plaxo or FriendFeed as current examples. FB is a walled city (admittedly a great one). But openness is the future (thanks again to Google) and FB needs to figure out how they fit.

A few personal observations about this topic. 1) Facebook is not a bubble - it is the breakthrough platform for Web 3.0 Social Networking.
2) Facebook has struggled to move from its roots as a community service to its perceived destiny as a commercial entity... 3) MySpace will suffer too as Facebook subsides - networks grow or die rapidly and MySpace to a large degree is living off Facebooks growth.. 4) Somewhere there is someone who gets this notion of a Web 3.0 Social Network and they are working on ways to bring to us as a viable commercial proposition.. 5) A combination of iPhone type platforms and the Facebook community may be the next generational model that will see Web 3.0 Social Networks run successfully as a business venture with valuations that the stock markets have not seen before.. 6) Google is at its peak right now but that is another story for another time and space....

Facebook has tons of users and very little revenue compared to this $15B valuation. Unless they can figure out a way to get much more revenue out of all these users then we can all just wait for the next big thing. Facebook is just another social network website, a way to connect with other people, a slight variant on myspace as that is more music related but none the less it has the same design and function. How much more can it evolve? I for one am already tired of FB and can't wait for the next revolutionary site that will get overinflated also and then we'll move on to the next thing.

do any of you use facebook?

honestly you might know too much about it to know anything at all. it is changing, a lot, all the time.

i've been riding it from its beginnings, and i use it a lot. far from being any type of broken bubble, it is king of networking among so many demographics. if you don't have a facebook, you're not in the crowd. if you don't have a collegeu account, who cares becuase collegeu sucks.

what a dumb idea, bursted bubble. that's like saying the moon's bubble has burst. i haven't heard much about the moon lately, it must not be cool anymore.